Enter your wins, losses, and average win/loss size. This free win rate calculator returns your win percentage, expectancy per trade, profit factor, and the breakeven win rate your reward-to-risk actually requires — instantly, no signup.
Tip: pull these four numbers straight from your trade journal or backtesting analytics.
A 45% win rate at 2.0:1 clears the 33% breakeven bar — positive expectancy of $52.50 per trade.
Winning trades divided by total trades. It tells you how often you win — but nothing about how much.
(Win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). Your average P&L per trade — the number that decides whether the strategy makes money.
1 ÷ (1 + reward-to-risk). The minimum win rate your R:R profile needs. Compare it to your actual win rate to see your edge margin.
Remember these numbers only stabilize with sample size — 100+ trades is the standard. Our guide on how to backtest a trading strategy covers why 50 trades is the floor and how to build the sample fast with market replay.
Win rate = winning trades ÷ total trades × 100. If you won 45 of 100 trades, your win rate is 45%. Breakeven trades are usually excluded from both counts, though some traders count them as losses to be conservative.
There is no universally "good" win rate — it only means something next to your average win/loss size. A 40% win rate is profitable with 2:1 reward-to-risk, while a 60% win rate loses money if average losses are twice average wins. Judge win rate and reward-to-risk together via expectancy.
Breakeven win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + R), where R is your reward-to-risk ratio. At 2:1 you break even at 33.3%; at 1:1 you need 50%; at 3:1 just 25%. Anything above the breakeven rate (after commissions) is profitable.
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). It is your average profit or loss per trade. A positive expectancy means the strategy makes money over a large sample regardless of what the raw win rate looks like.
At least 100–200 trades. Below 50 trades, win rate is mostly noise — a coin flipped 20 times lands 65%+ heads surprisingly often. Replay-based backtesting lets you log a statistically useful sample in weeks instead of months of live trading.
TestMax replays real futures data candle-by-candle and logs every simulated trade — win rate, expectancy, and profit factor calculated automatically. Build a 100-trade sample in weeks, free.
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